Playing A Numbers Game With Death

It’s been reasonably frustrating to see the current government be so utterly terrible at managing the country. I guess it makes sense in some ways, people who are good at being elected to represent the population of the country don’t really have to be good at project management. They just need to be good at getting elected. Mind you, in most constituencies they just need to be good at being selected to run in those areas. When you look at it you have to wonder why people vote for Jacob Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson. They don’t vote for those people do they? Otherwise I’m pretty sure they would have to agree that one is a puritanical prick and the other is a liar. People vote for selfish reasons and the tories seem to offer the best deal for selfish people. Politicians are the worst people to have in charge of the massive projects this country is running. We need project managers and people who understand risk.

The current policy of not worrying about the Omicron variant and letting it run wild through the country relies on a couple of massive WISHES. The government aren’t worried about taking precautions, they are a reactive group of people who don’t have the balls to enact what is right for the country. It’s almost as if being popular enough to get voted for doesn’t make you very good at the thing you’ve been voted to do, especially so with the current bunch. For the UK to succeed we need all of the following WISHES to come true:

  • Not too many people need to self-isolate due to virus.
  • Not too many people end up in hospital due to new variant.
  • The vaccination programme means people don’t end up in hospital.

I am horrified at this approach. This gamble based on WISHES. We aren’t being pro-active. We are reacting. The problem is that the reactions happen two fucking weeks too late, because that’s how viruses work. It appears that the government still do not understand any basic biology. If we are really fucking lucky then hospitalisations will remain low and this works. We are hoping for luck. Fucking luck. We are playing with people’s lives while hoping for luck. Precautions are not being taken.

Less Severe
Less Severe
It's A Numbers Thing
It’s A Numbers Thing

So, Omicron might be less severe. But we didn’t know that until very recently. We kept everything open because we are reactive remember. Let’s go with the best possible number there, 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital. 70%. This seems good. But what this means is that if we were to have a massive peak in infections any gains would be wiped out as the total number of admissions returns to bad levels. This would be bad if the policy had been to keep everything open and say have a massive surge in infections.

Massive Increase In Daily Cases
Massive Increase In Daily Cases

Fuck. That’s what has happened.

Now, I’m not claiming to be correct and I’m not claiming that we are fucked. I’m not saying the NHS is going to be overwhelmed. I’m saying the risk of that has increased massively and the government are playing a numbers game. Hoping for the best outcome. They are playing dice with the lives of the vulnerable and the unlucky. They are placing bets on being lucky and making everything look like they were geniuses. Quite clearly they aren’t geniuses. It turns out that lots of MPs are just selfish twats who don’t care about anyone:

Oppose Tougher Covid Rules
Oppose Tougher Covid Rules

We currently have a bunch of MPs who don’t understand science, are willing to play dice with the lives of the country and who maintain a liar in power. It’s a fucking depressing world we live in at the moment and I only have so much anger I can maintain. Very soon it’ll be my chance to ignore the news again for a while. I need to get away from being a realist and play my PlayStation and enter a world of happy aliens I can shoot.

This is communication number 2001. Here are some things that happened in that year:

  • This is the first year of the third millennium.
  • UK foot and mouth outbreak.
  • Race riots in Bradford.
  • 9/11
  • The war in Afghanistan starts.
  • The iPod is released.

Shootings

So, there’s been a shooting in the USA. There are always going to be shootings in the USA while guns are so easy to access. It’s really that simple. If you make guns easy for any idiot to purchase and use then they are going to use them. There should be a cooling off period and background checks. Oh, that and Mr Trump-Cunt removing the rules about the mentally ill buying guns.

It’s important to make sure that when news is presented that it is accurate and (preferably) unbiased. Even BBC R4 annoys me nowadays with John Humphries’s leading questions and stupid un-scientific knowledge. If I can shout at the radio “irrelevant” or “leading” or “biased” then the interviewer isn’t doing their job well.

I screen grabbed this from twitter:

News Issues
News Issues

I am not trying to point out that there haven’t been enough school based shootings, but I do want to point out that if you are trying to make an argument then you should be correct in your figures. I do not know what the actual number is for school shootings. Honestly, the fact that there is a number for JUST THIS YEAR means something is fucked. But all news people surely have a duty to represent the truth as best as they can find it. It doesn’t take much research to get that the 18 figure is misleading and that’s when the NRA will fuck you over.

Why 100 000?

I just don’t understand why this waterless urinal is labelled as saving “up to” 100000 litres of water a year. It rather seems a cop out. Perhaps they should have used the term “on average”? But then, perhaps some of the McDonalds clientele wouldn’t understand the use of the term “on” let alone the incredibly difficult word “average”. Why not just write the following:

This waterless urinal saves up to 1000000 litres of water per year and may be responsible for the saving of the whales and arctic ice sheet

My use of the words “up to” and “may” allow me to write whatever the hell I want. I prefer my version.

20121022-095823.jpg

48 Degrees

My newest favourite number is 48 or more accurately arccos (2/3). Other favourite numbers are 5,17, and 309. Although 48 is ten more that the Revolting Cocks song 38, the reason for 48 degrees is explained (mathematically) below, but essentially 48 degrees is the solution to the problem:

A smooth hemisphere with radius, r, is resting in a fixed position on a horizontal plane with its flat face in contact with the plane. A particle of mass, m, is slightly disturbed from rest at the highest point of the hemisphere. Find the angle to the vertical that the particle leaves the surface of the sphere.

Also  this is independent of radius, particle mass and local gravity! Nice.