It’s All Just Guessing

So, imagine asking a psychic for help with a missing persons case. In many ways this is understandable as when people are at their lowest there’s some comfort that things like that might work even if you know it’s mostly rubbish. People will grasp at straws. Consider those who use alternative medicine for anything, but worst of all, those who have cancer and give up medical treatment because their alternative medical practitioner says it won’t work. I saw the text of a psychic’s prediction of where a missing person would be or was. I’m not really sure. It is pretty terrible. Let’s look at it.

Psychic Messages - 1
Psychic Messages – 1
Psychic Messages - 2
Psychic Messages – 2

So, here are the guesses within these messages:

  • street.
  • abandoned house.
  • older guys.
  • 18 or 19.
  • motorcycle.
  • mound of dirt.
  • grey jogging bottoms.
  • dirt bikes.
  • warehouse.
  • house.
  • kid.
  • pile of dirt.
  • construction site.
  • mound of dirt.

When we look at the types of building mentioned we have about four different things, this covers all bases. It doesn’t matter what reality was, this psychic will score a hit. Given that there was an image sent to her of the person outside a building in a street this isn’t very psychic. Then we can look at the description of a person hanging around with other people. Well, I don’t see that very often do I. That’s an amazing prediction or seeing or whatever the fuck. If teenagers are out somewhere then there’s a high chance some of them might have a dirt bike or a motorbike. All of this is just stuff that happens and none of it is specific to this particular situation.

I think my favourite part of the whole prediction is the dirt aspect. Can you tell me somewhere that isn’t close to dirt or a pile of dirt? Oh, and the joggers? The psychic had an image of the person who went missing. Also, grey joggers are probably very common. All of the psychic predictions in these messages are just listing very common things.

What these people rely on is confirmation bias and motivated reasoning. Humans find it really hard to think against things that they really want to be true. Everyone would like the idea of existing after we die and so we create stories to make it as true as possible. It’s a shame we live in a world where people can defraud or give false hope to others in their time of need.

Financial Crisis Prediction

The date is 16 August 2011. A few days ago I had a chat with a friend of mine in Washington D.C. and we discussed the downgrading of the USA’s credit rating by Standard and Poor’s. We both agreed that there are at least two or three more years of finacial repercussions of the 2008 financial crisis.
It looks as though the Euro might implode and other countries might find themselves being downgraded. I don’t think the Euro will disappear it is too important for that but I do believe that there is going to be a whole lot more of hurt for the whole world as markets realign the worth of everything. Ministers and world leaders aren’t allowed to speak the truth about the markets for fear that it will make things happen quicker. Those who we expect to speak for the countries are largely self interested and afraid of completely wrecking what is seen as a broken system (by me). This inability to speak of more financial pain is leading to a protraction of the crisis.
I am glad that I work for the state in a roundabout way and not in the service sector. I think the next few years are going to go from pretty bad to worse. Such is life.
It would be nice to see governments finally reigning in corporations and banks so that there is more regulation. It appears that those in charge of these institutions over the last few years have made their cash and are now nicely retired in their gated homes.
Oh for the good old days of stability!? When was that?