I got a proper christmas present from Jo and this is the first part of it. It’s a model of the Millennium Falcon coming in at about 75mm long and 50mm wide. I have R2 and an X-Wing to make yet. This was pretty fiddly! There were about thirty pieces of metal sheet to pop out and then fit together. My eyes are possibly slightly too old for this shit! But it does look good.
Millennium Falcon
If you want to see a 360 degree version, and who wouldn’t, then click here. One more view:
Millennium Falcon
Yes, I know the word “christmas” should be spelt with a capital letter. But I don’t care.
The title of this communication does not refer to the more frequent sea passage in the Northwest of the globe. The fact that this passage is becoming a more regular occurrence should scare the fuck out of all of you. Anthropogenic Global Climate change is happening and the speed is increasing. The biggest problem is that all the damage has been done already. Because the effects are long term and not pleasant and will cost a fucking fortune to sort out it’s not the sort of thing politicians really want to talk about. As far as I can tell this planet is fucked. It isn’t going to get solved and our grandchildren will be suffering as a result of this. Fuck the self-interested assholes who “govern” the countries. Fuck them and the short-termism of politics.
Bridges
The bit in the middle of the map, bounded by the river, the A229 and the two motorways is a lovely area to live in. I have written about it before see this communication. To get to Snodland, which the Post Office thinks is the best place to take my parcels, is a 9 or 12 mile journey ONE WAY. This is largely because of the river and the location of bridges over the river.
A new village is being built on brownfield site in the three villages area. There will soon be four in the valley. While I understand the need for more housing I do think the character of the valley villages is going to be ruined. Currently the villages are largely working class Victorian homes built for the workers of Burham Brick Works. There’s a certain look and feel to the villages. The brand new village will be large, expensive homes. My chip on my shoulder is back! I have found myself getting annoyed recently at the stratification of society and the problems that causes. Anyway, back to the journey to the post office lest this writing become another rant about the uselessness of politicians and the social engineering they mess with [along with fucking the planet].
Part of the deal for these new houses was a new bridge to be built. This will allow most of the traffic of the new village to not go past the junction to my village. But in reality that’s bullshit. What may happen is that the local country roads become over run with people cutting through along the bottom of the Downs. We shall see. My village is already planning a zebra crossing because of the expected extra traffic.
New Bridge
The new bridge is in place and opened recently. I drove over it this evening and took a photo. Already the road seems busier [anecdote and confirmation bias]. I will run that way tomorrow. Normally running along that stretch I would be passed by about 3-4 cars during the mile I am on that road. It will be interesting to see what happens. While I like the idea of the bridge I am not happy about what it means for those who live around here.
The New Bridge
So I now have to spend the next few months behind non locals who think the road [at the split] is two way because they haven’t paid attention. My patience could be tested.
I will keep you chaps updated about what happens. I predict a serious crash at the Bull Lane / Pilgrims Way junction within a year and then traffic lights or a mini roundabout will be installed.
I have been to the Lake District a few times and every time it stuns me as I drive from Penrith to Keswick. I went to see a friend of mine and he said he had a good activity for us on the Friday!
Our task was to walk around the Keswick end of Derwent Water and find the locations where three of the four clips were filmed. They cheated a bit in the film because one of the backdrops was filmed from the Lodore Falls end of the lake and then made up to be from the north end of the lake [naughty!], this is the location we didn’t try to find.
The first scene backdrop we looked for was filmed near the transmission tower to the edge of Keswick. It’s labelled in the clip as “Flying Southwest from Castlerigg over Great Wood”, TS00:21. The screenclip below shows the approximate position of the filming location as it was taken from a helicopter.
The second filming position occurs at TS00:41 and is labelled “Looking Northeast Near Brandelhow Point”. This one was filmed from a static camera and so was easier to pin point from where it was filmed.
The last filming location we looked for was the attack on the pub-by-the-lake. Its labelled in the clip as “Looking Northwest from the Shorline West of Crow Park”, TS01:13. We found this spot on the shores of Derwent Water.
Fortunately for us, Marc had a good knowledge of the area and also an iPad with the Star Wars film and the YouTube clip. Also, his dad is a Lake District expert, being on his third time around all the Wainwrights.
The next morning I had a run and much like two years ago my aim was to run up a mountain. Clearly I chose one of the smaller ones and I toodled up Latrigg.
I did enjoy it although I headed around the town afterwards as an extra as although the climb was hard work I had rested plenty by the time I was down. Here’s a panorama I took once at the summit of Latrigg.
Shortly after the run I drove back home. My plan was to cross the Pennines, turn at Scotch Corner and follow the A1(M), but I missed that last turning and so did most of the M1, Oh well!
POTUS departed for Germany. I feel quite privileged to be in a position where I was able to be there and see everything.
28000
It was interesting. The airport was quiet for about the hour that I was there. No flights in or out, I wonder if that played havoc with the airlines’ schedules? The photos taken here are from the closest I could get without being shot by the snipers on top of the buildings or the Met Police Helicopter constantly circling around above us.
Stansted Map
This map has three numbers drawn on it. Number 1 was the position of the C-17 parked, I didn’t see that move. Number 2 is where Air Force One was parked and number 3 was the closest I could get. Fortunately I was reasonably aware of the layout of the old side of the airport.
VH-3D
Ospreys
Boeing C-32
Air Force One
Air Force One taxiing
C-32 Departure
28000
Marine One
Osprey
Met Police
Arrivals
It was quite exciting knowing I had seen the President but in all honesty all we saw were figures go up the stairs. It was also pretty damn cold and we had hail/snow at one point! I believe Stansted was chosen because it is the go-to airport for hostages and hijacking along with having plenty of space to put important planes.
I will note that events from the film London Has Fallen did not occur.
I’m going to try and explain my position on data mining and data collection and profiling. The government wants to collect lots of data on all of us to help fight terrorism. This won’t work. The amount of data they want to collect is immense. They want to find terrorists using sophisticated computer programs and mining this data for connections.
Problem 1
If I was a terrorist I wouldn’t use social media for communication. I would use face to face meetings, dead letter drops and PAYG mobiles using them for a week and then dumping them. I would never directly contact anyone in charge and all organisation would be off the internet. It’s no use searching these data for patterns. Terrorists don’t use communication methods we can tap into.
Problem 2
The laws of probability. Let us suppose that the software can recognise a terrorist, by using their behaviour traits, 99% of the time and it incorrectly states an innocent person is a terrorist 1% of the time. Let’s suppose we are monitoring a million people and that there are 100 terrorists in that population. This would extrapolate to around 7000 terrorists in the UK. It would seem likely/reasonable that there are that many people within our borders willing to cause damage to the state.
The Sums
Of the 100 terrorists the software finds 99% of them so 99 terrorists are taken into custody. 1 terrorist remains at large.
The software also falsely accuses 1% of the population as it is only correct 99% of the time. This means that 9999 honest members of the public are wrongly accused of being terrorists.
So we have taken 10098 people into custody. The chances of you being accused but innocent is 9999/10098 which is about 99%.
The chance of you being guilty if taken into custody is 99/10098 or about 1%
This is a bad situation.
Data mining isn’t going to work. Neither is profiling or algorithms about people’s behaviour. The numbers don’t make sense. This measure won’t work.
To give you an idea of the scope of this problem I will now expand this to those people who enter this country each year. Let’s assume that the domestic population of the UK is perfectly happy with the State and not partaking in naughty behaviour (a false assumption). According to this BBC report there are 200 million people who enter and leave the country each year. So that means 100 million coming into the country each year. This profiling method assumes we have access to all of the data about every person who enters the country. Let’s look at the numbers and just for niceness let’s increase our software detection accuracy to 99.9%.
99.9% at selecting a terrorist correctly.
0.1% at selecting an innocent person.
Let’s also increase the number of terrorists to 10,000 (although this seems remarkably high to me).
9990 terrorists will be correctly detained. This means that 10 will go free.
99990 innocent people will be detained.
The probability of a detained person being guilty is: 9%. This is slightly better but not a system I want to be a part of.
I’ve been doing something at weekends to keep me busy and outdoors seeing parts of the countryside!I first heard about geocaching at work where I had helped a colleague solve some puzzles. I hadn’t really thought much about it until recently when I was persuaded to have a go with Sally.
We started geocaching around Rugby, just to see what it was like and what we could expect. We have since done quite a bit and seen some lovely places around the country, mostly with the excuse of going there to find some caches.
Current places we have been to just for the cache:
Dunchurch
Ryton Waters
Baginton
Buttermere
Herne Bay
Mote Park
The Fosse Way
Claybrooke Magna and Claybrooke Parva
Coombe Abbey
As you won’t know as I think my status picture will update, I am currently on 99 finds. I’d like the next one to be special but I doubt it is going to be that, probably a boring cache.
Anyway, it’s good fun and a good reason to get out and about.
Spot the difference between these two pictures [the lights being on is not the one I’m after]. The top picture indicates a very bad way to leave the car.
The following picture shows the correct way to leave a car. There is NEVER any excuse for leaving the wipers in any position other than STOP.
This communication is much unlike Ronseal products. This IS Essex fog but Ronseal products don’t do what they say on the tin [great marketing though!].
Only a minor rant today about how effective advertising is and how our views of the world are shaped by what we are told rather than what we try to find out for ourselves using sceptical thinking tools.
Special K is a breakfast cereal made by Kellogg’s. The adverts on television promote Special K as a healthy alternative to other breakfasts and good for losing weight. Most of the adverts have a good looking woman in a red swimming suit enjoying life to the full. The message is clear:
Eat Special K and lose weight, be healthy and live a wonderful life.
As far as I can tell, Kellogg’s are perfectly able to make these claims because they all mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. The adverts make no particular claims that would require evidence, so I [grumpily] admit that the adverts themselves are perfectly ok to broadcast.
If you want to find out more about the sexual views and (non) medical ideas of the man who invented Corn Flakes then please look here. I am going to look solely at the information I can find about Kellogg’s cereals.
If you want to lose weight then you need to follow this principle:
Calories in should be lower than calories out.
I’ve explained this before in this communication. Therefore you would expect that Special K has significantly lower energy content that other cereals made by Kellogg’s. Let’s see.
Special K Nutrition Panel
As you can see here, 100 grams of Special K contains 375 kcal. To burn that much energy off you would have to walk/run around 4 kilometres. Now, let’s see what Kellogg’s Original Corn Flakes contains:
Corn Flakes Nutrition
I’m sorry this isn’t the actual panel from Kellogg’s but their website wasn’t working properly and I couldn’t get the information. Let’s read what this information tells us.
CORN FLAKES HAS FEWER CALORIES THAN SPECIAL K
Holy Cow! How does that happen? The adverts tell us one thing but in reality the truth is completely the reverse. I’m pretty sure that Special K tastes like cardboard too, so perhaps everyone should just swap to standard Corn Flakes. In fact when we look at the energy content of other Kellogg’s products we can see that there isn’t a great deal of difference in energy terms.
Crunchy Nut NutritionSpecial K with extra crap
So, 100 grams of these cereals are all around 380 kcal. It doesn’t make a great deal of difference which one you eat. However, I am not sure of 100g of Corn Flakes LOOKS the same amount in a bowl compared to 100g of flakes with extra sugar coating. It could be that you will fill the bowl to the same level but end up eating many more calories because the coated flakes are more massive. This is a test I might do one day.
Also, I am not commenting on the extra sugars you will eat if you have sugar coated cereal. This is not a communication about how healthy a particular cereal is, it’s about the energy content and the impression given by advertising.
So, what should we learn from this? I think this shows clearly that advertising works extremely well at forming opinions about certain products and their effects on us in terms of health. ALL advertising claims should be taken sceptically until you have investigated them for yourself. Don’t dismiss or accept things straight away. It is perfectly OK for you to think or say:
That sounds interesting but I’ll form my own opinion once I’ve investigated it a little more.
In fact, that is generally a good approach to life itself.
One more thing. Anti-aging creams can legally ONLY advertise themselves as anti-aging if and only if they contain a form of UV sun protection. There is little evidence that any of the other stuff they put in creams will protect your skin from the 3/5/7 signs of aging.
