It’s All Just Guessing

So, imagine asking a psychic for help with a missing persons case. In many ways this is understandable as when people are at their lowest there’s some comfort that things like that might work even if you know it’s mostly rubbish. People will grasp at straws. Consider those who use alternative medicine for anything, but worst of all, those who have cancer and give up medical treatment because their alternative medical practitioner says it won’t work. I saw the text of a psychic’s prediction of where a missing person would be or was. I’m not really sure. It is pretty terrible. Let’s look at it.

Psychic Messages - 1
Psychic Messages – 1
Psychic Messages - 2
Psychic Messages – 2

So, here are the guesses within these messages:

  • street.
  • abandoned house.
  • older guys.
  • 18 or 19.
  • motorcycle.
  • mound of dirt.
  • grey jogging bottoms.
  • dirt bikes.
  • warehouse.
  • house.
  • kid.
  • pile of dirt.
  • construction site.
  • mound of dirt.

When we look at the types of building mentioned we have about four different things, this covers all bases. It doesn’t matter what reality was, this psychic will score a hit. Given that there was an image sent to her of the person outside a building in a street this isn’t very psychic. Then we can look at the description of a person hanging around with other people. Well, I don’t see that very often do I. That’s an amazing prediction or seeing or whatever the fuck. If teenagers are out somewhere then there’s a high chance some of them might have a dirt bike or a motorbike. All of this is just stuff that happens and none of it is specific to this particular situation.

I think my favourite part of the whole prediction is the dirt aspect. Can you tell me somewhere that isn’t close to dirt or a pile of dirt? Oh, and the joggers? The psychic had an image of the person who went missing. Also, grey joggers are probably very common. All of the psychic predictions in these messages are just listing very common things.

What these people rely on is confirmation bias and motivated reasoning. Humans find it really hard to think against things that they really want to be true. Everyone would like the idea of existing after we die and so we create stories to make it as true as possible. It’s a shame we live in a world where people can defraud or give false hope to others in their time of need.